Online growth slows     The rapid rise of community retail

Online growth has slowed, Offline overall recovery

With the improvement of China’s social productivity and the improvement of people’s consumption level, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods continue to rise. From 2014 to 2019, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods showed a continuous upward trend, and the overall growth rate showed a downward trend of fluctuations. In 2019, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.1649 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 1 percentage point.

In the overall social consumer goods retail, with the continuous development of mobile Internet and logistics, as well as the promotion of major online marketing activities, online shopping has become an indispensable part of our daily life. China’s online consumer retail sales continue to grow. From 2014 to 2019, the national online retail sales increased from 2,789.8 billion yuan to 10.6324 trillion yuan, although the total online retail sales continue to grow, it is undeniable that the era of high online growth has passed the ceiling in recent years. The overall growth rate of online retail sales declined in 2014-2019, and the growth rate slowed down. Online retailing cannot replace offline physical retailing. Although the proportion of offline retailing has declined, it still accounts for about 80%, and offline retailing has picked up overall.

Social consumption plummeted and rebounded quickly after the epidemic disease COVID-19

From January to February 2020, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 20.5% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the epidemic. Compared with the SARS pandemic in 2003, affected by the SARS pandemic, the superiors took control measures. In May 2003, the total retail sales of social consumer goods dropped to 4.3% year-on-year, and with the gradual deregulation in June, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded rapidly to 8.3%. China’s offline retail consumption still occupies a dominant position, and it was affected by travel during the epidemic, causing the total retail sales of consumer goods to plummet. How to open up online and offline retail scenarios is an opportunity and challenge for the future development of consumer goods retail.

The epidemic has given consumers a new breakthrough in the online consumption of shopping malls. In our survey on “intention to consume during the epidemic” conducted by random sampling of 20-35-year-old white-collar consumers, during the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic, those who had made online purchases through online shopping applets or apps in shopping malls accounted for 70%; Online retail consumer groups who have never used any form account for about 20%, and others account for 10%.

The rapid rise of community retail and the rapid increase of fresh e-commerce users

Affected by the travel restrictions of the epidemic, major offline retailers have launched home services to obtain new user traffic. According to the Mob data center, from January 22 to February 6, 2020, the number of new users in Freshippo, MissFresh and Dingdong  continued to grow. The scale of daily new users on Freshippo increased from 36,000 to 54,000, and the number of daily new users on MissFresh increased from 16,000 to 48,000.

In the short term, the impact of the Corona Virus (COVID-19) on the retail industry is stronger than that of SARS, which directly causes the total retail sales of consumer goods in China to fall by 20.5%. The losses of individual formats are relatively large. But in the long run, the epidemic situation will not affect the overall growth trend of the retail industry, and even it has more development directions and opportunities for e-commerce, supermarkets and other formats.

The above data comes from Prospective Industry Research Institute “In-depth research report on business model innovation and investment opportunities in China’s new retail industry”, at the same time, the Prospective Industry Research Institute provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial planning, industrial declaration, industrial park planning, and industry investment attraction.